The Pequod Review:
Richard A. Clarke's Warnings (co-written with R.P. Eddy) explores the early warnings from certain past catastrophes, and tries to discern the factors that cause some people to see the future clearer than others. Many of Clarke's and Eddy's examples are interesting — they range from Hurricane Katrina to the rise of ISIS to the 2008 recession — but the authors fail to sufficiently consider counter-factual scenarios (which would have made such forecasts appear less accurate in hindsight). I prefer the greater analytical rigor of Philip Tetlock's work.